Question:
Do you think most people understand that Hillary Clinton might only gain like 10 net delegates frm Penn Prmry?
2008-04-23 07:42:06 UTC
and that for her to catch up to Obama in pledged delegates at this point, she has to win like 80% of the remaining pledged delegates.

Do you think those people voting for Hillary Clinton realize that if she is behind Obama in pledged delegates by at least 100 at the time of the primary, and the superdelegates overrule the lead the people have given him to select her, that this would cause massive dissention and apathy in the party? Do you think they understand that what they are wishing to have happen is anti democratic and actually giving the republicans their fondest wish...the weaker of the two candidates?

and do you think those people voting for Hillary clinton still at this juncture realize that the longer it takes for the democrats to have a nominee, the stronger it makes John McCain's chances of winning?
Nine answers:
Big E
2008-04-23 07:45:57 UTC
PA did not change anything. OBAMA will win the nomination.



HRC = Hideous, Repulsive, Corrupt.



Hillary's supporters are OLD GUARD Democrats. If Obama wins the nomination, they still will not vote for a Republican in numbers. Obama is going to be the Democratic Nominee.



The young and blacks WILL NOT support Hillary Clinton. Why do you think McCain has been in Memphis and Selma? If Hillary steals the nomination, they will not vote for her, McCain is smart covering that base.
Nitrin
2008-04-23 15:32:11 UTC
I understand your frustration . . . but things really aren't that clear anymore . . .



You see, you can't have it both ways. If Hillary wins the most votes -- and it increasingly looks as if she will, by winning the popular vote -- you can't say Obama should still win because he had the most delegates and the rules are the rules . . . because if rules are the rules, then superdelegates -- which are included in those rules -- need to be included too. You can't pick and choose which rules you want to keep, and which to throw out, if Hillary is actually the victor in terms of raw vote counts.



It is a perfectly viable argument to present, i.e., that the superdelegates threaten democracy, IF using them would overturn a candidates lead in both the delegate and popular votes. But if Obama doesn't have the popular vote, then the moral strength of that argument goes out the back door, because it is hard to see how using superdelegates to elect the candidate who actually got the most votes . . . it is hard to see how that is undemocratic.



Besides, being in the lead due to caucases -- which are not really representational and truly democratic -- and not allowing Michigan and Florida voters to have a say is hardly a paradigm for "democracy". If these states were counted, Hillary would be in the lead in the popular vote -- and likely at the end of all of this she will be in the lead of the popular vote even without these states. Essentially, that negates the "democracy" argument.



You see, the delegate system is shadey at best. I mean, how is it that one candidate clearly win the popular vote in a state like Texas, for instance, and yet tie in terms of delegate count? It is rediculous. The superdelegates situation just adds more confusion and question marks to the whole matter . . . but the popular vote is clear. If Hillary wins the popular vote, the argument that the delegates are what matters, and so Obama should win even though he didn't get the most votes because rules are rules, then there won't be any argument -- moral or legal -- for not including the superdelegates.



At this point, Obama's only real hope in stopping the Hillary comeback is to win the popular vote, or to gain the most superdelegates . . . and I don't think he can do either.



As for Obama being the most electable, I would have to disagree. Obama is doing well because he carries the latte liberal and black votes. But working class Americans don't like him -- and I can't imagine there is much he can do to change their minds on that at this point. Really, the scandals -- such as the rev Wright issue -- that have surfaced against Obama are issues that really negate any realistic prospect of him gaining much ground among more conservative voters. Essentially, you will have mass exodus of working class voters who would have voted for Hillary choosing McCain should Obama be the nominee. And there is no realistic prospect for victory solely by relying on Black and latte liberal votes. Granted, now that these voter blocks have largely turned against Clinton, her chances are also greatly reduced in the general election -- but the argument that Obama is clearly more electable simply no longer holds weight.



Particularly if Clinton is able to convince Obama to be her running mate, she would be able to pick up a good chunk of left wing and black voters who would otherwise not vote at all, and yet still be in the position -- unlike Obama (even with Hillary as a running mate) -- to draw heavily on working class and even moderate republican voters (particularly those voters who are concerned about the economy). If Ann Coulter supports Hillary over McCain, I suspect there will be those conservatives who will follow her.



I think Hillary is the stronger candidate overall, and her chances of winning this thing very realistic indeed.
2008-04-23 15:14:53 UTC
I haven't voted yet. That will come May 6th, but I realize that the Democratic Primaries are not a winner-take-all vote. They each get a percentage. In the States that Obama "won", he only got a percentage.



Hillary may not overtake Barack, but Barack is not going to get the nomination out-right. He can't get enough delegates either. The flip-side that the media tends to ignore. They would rather talk about how "desperate" Hillary is. Whether she wins or not, she will come out of this strong.



One of the factors that the Superdelegates will have to consider is that Hillary is winning in traditional Democratic Stronghold States. States that elect Democratic Presidents. While Barack is performing well in Red States, the presidency is a winner-take-all and if he can't gain strong support in Stronghold States, he has no chance of winning. Granted, there will be a substantial portion of Democrats that would vote for him over McCain. But would it be enough to beat McCain. Additionally, Obama has done well in Caucuses which allow Repubs to vote in Demo Primaries. Don't expect support from them come November. There is the possibility that they voted for Obama because they did not want to face Hillary. Currently, all of this is undecided, but these are factors that the Superdelegates will have to consider at the Convention.



I, and every other Demo, would have preferred a clear front-runner that ran away with the nomination. But both of these candidates, especially Obama, is trying to steer clear of talking about issues. They are more afraid of losing than aggressively trying to win. Obama seems to only mimic Hillary who, in turn, took her lead from my candidate, John Edwards. John was the most electable come November, but people in the early States were caught up in the Hillary/Obama hype and didn't listen. A lack of clarity is what is causing this stalemate. I also take issue with Obama not agreeing with a solution to seat the Florida and Michigan Delegates. He wants to automatically get half or neither get anything. That's bad policy. Is this how he wants to include all Americans in his vision of "change". The Superdelegates could decide to seat those delegates as they are and Obama would lose.



As far as which is the weaker candidate, that is a matter of opinion. I have mine; You have yours.
2008-04-23 14:47:22 UTC
Momentum at the end of the primaries plays a role here. If Obama can't "close the deal," as Hillary puts it, or win the big states, then superdelegates will have to think long and hard before voting for him.
mommanuke
2008-04-23 14:47:01 UTC
No, because they are for Hillary Clinton. They will ignore whatever they need to and refuse to believe whatever goes against what they want. Just like they ignore what the Republicans would do to Hillary and the Democratic Party if she's the nominee.
Bob P
2008-04-23 14:48:37 UTC
You can always tell an Obama supporter, not much but can always spot one a mile away!



It is now on to NC and Indiana.



Hillary Clinton is so tough that it is making Barack Obama weak and unable to beat John McCain? Is that your argument? Not a very logical one now is it!
2008-04-23 14:48:47 UTC
Do YOU realize that if Obama were to get the nomination

it will doom us to 4 more yrs of Bushco type policies and MORE WAR under MCCAIN !!



Working class Americans will NOT vote for Obama in the general election, due to his racially motivated champain and his mentor Wright.

If he were to win the nomination J Wright and Louis Farrakhan will be on our TV's night and day courtesy of the GOP------------this will kill any chance he had, !!
2008-04-23 14:45:29 UTC
It's bigger than the delegates. If this goes to the convention(which I absolutely believe it will) momentum and electability will decide the Dem nominee!!
feline101_02
2008-04-23 14:45:40 UTC
They either don't want to understand all of that or they are successfully brainwashed by Hillary.



And they call Obama supporters Kool-aid drinkers? haha


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