Do you consider polls? never? or just the polls with a reliable track record like Rasmussen? and why?

Question

MOST ACCURATE POLLSTER'S (Fordham Univeristy study)

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
2. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline [phone])*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2

(PDF) www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

Answer 1

I don't generally trust them, but Rasmussen's have proven to be the most accurate.

Answer 2

I consider polls only in the horse race sense of the polls to tell me where an election stands.



Of course, that study shows one problem with polls. The only way to measure the accuracy of polls is the last poll prior to an election. Unfortunately, that tells you nothing about the accuracy of the polls conducted six or seven months before an election.



As you get closer to an election, the screening questions for likely voters tend to show a higher percentage of likely voters than the screening questions six or seven months before an election. What this tells us is that the screening questions do a bad job at finding typical voters who do not pay much attention to the campaign until the last month. Yet it is those voters who decide elections which is why there tends to be some movement in the polls in late September and early October.



As to polls on policy questions, it is pretty clear that the results of policy questions are skewed by the choice of words. For example, identifying a proposal with its sponsor instantly changes the level of support and opposition for a proposal. LIkewise, what assumptions about a proposal are included or excluded from the question also alters the results about the proposal.

Answer 3

Nice that you posted the exact same question but changed the source from Pollster to Fordham to try to make it more legit. But if you read the study, it only says the Rassmussen was most accurate in the 2008 election results. So as I said in my last answer to this question...



The only polls that can be rated for accuracy are election outcome polls. The polls can be compared to the actual results of the election and then the accuracy established.



There is not any method for rating the accuracy of OPINION polls, as there are no actual outcomes to compare the poll to. Opinion polls can be influenced by the people asked the questions, how the questions are asked and the opinions of the polling organization. If one polling organization shows that 70% of people polled are in favor of something and another poll shows that 60% of people are opposed to that same thing, which is more accurate? How do you prove that claim? You can't.



Trying to infer that accuracy ratings for election results polls translates into accuracy of opinion polls for polling organizations is propaganda, pure and simple.

Answer 4

Polls are fun to read, but mean very little. People do tend to lie also. I remember my daughter telling me about the polls that she took in HS about drugs, drinking, sex etc. She said that almost everyone lied.

Answer 5

I think human beings are ignorant enough that the polls actually LEAD what they believe. They're influenced by the polls themselves. And that's what polls were created to do. That's why we have so many polls in this age of two ideologies fighting over our Western civilization, one of them led by the scum of the earth, mass communication leaders.

Answer 6

I don't take much notice of polls, unless they're just for fun and mild interest. Like statistics, where serious matters are concerned, polls can be manipulated or misinterpreted.

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Answer 7

No, I always do my own research especially their past voting records, listen and vote for who I think is the better/best candidate. Polls are just random people selected for their opinion. Why would polls influence people anyway?

Answer 8

useful to help predict where things are headed



useless for making a decision otherwise



i have no particular use for anybody else's opinion

Answer 9

JW B said it all! Give him the points!