Does higher voter turnout = better chance of gay marriage passing?

Question

Most experts believe higher turnout means good news for gay marriage.


But:

California had record turnout (particularly among youth) in 2008.
Maine had very strong turnout in 2009.
Gay Marriage lost in BOTH.



and explain this:

In 2006,
an anti-gay marriage amendment was DEFEATED in Arizona.
In 2008, (with much higher voter turnout)
an anti-gay marriage amendment PASSED in Arizona.


How did gay marriage win in 2006,
and lose in 2008?

Answer 1

I think so. Most Americans are moderate and don't have a problem with it. They don't even know why it's an issue. However, most Americans didn't even bother voting yesterday, it wasn't a big election day. So the only people voting were the right-wing activists with an agenda against the gay community.



If a referendum was included on a bigger ticket with higher turnout, you'd get a better picture, and I think it would say, we don't care what gay people do in their personal lives, they have as much rights as we do, next question.

Answer 2

Not if the higher turn out is due to people adamantly opposed, and coming out in droves to show their opposition.

Answer 3

NORMALLY high voter turn-out means a protest of the status-quo.