Republicans: Do you acknowledge that there is a realistic chance you may lose the Senate this year?

Question

While granted, Dems are facing a tough map having to play defense in a lot of red states,..........those SAME Democrats won in those SAME red states in 2012. They did it before (and it wasn't even a WAVE year in 2012).........


in 2018,
the WAVE is at their backs. It's a referendum against an unpopular president.

and they only need to pick up 2 seats. (Nevada and Arizona).

Dems are also running a strong candidate in Tennessee.

and Texas is no longer "solid red"...

and now Mississippi has a special election. While that is a very red-state, it's also a state with a large minority population.

Answer 1

Yes, historically speaking the party in power loses seats.

Answer 2

wow

Answer 3

It's possible, but I'm not sure how realistic it is. You keep focusing on the seats in states you have a chance at winning and ignoring the seats in states that you'll have a hard time keeping. States like Missouri, Indiana, Montana, West Virginia, and North Dakota. Yes, the President's party often loses seats in midterm elections, but that trend assumes equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans running for reelection--which is not the case this year. Yes, Trump is an unpopular President overall, but he's still popular in red states (and in particular, the red states I mentioned).

Answer 4

There is always a chance.

Answer 5

Yeah. Just like we had to acknowledge Hillary Clinton had it in the bag so we didn't need to go vote. If YOU win the election fine...but at least let us count the votes before YOU start demanding control.

Answer 6

Not a chance. In fact, there is a better chance of a significant increase in seats. That "wave" is about as real as the belief that Trump had no chance of even getting the nomination, let alone beat Hillary. When the real benefits of the tax cuts, booming economy and lower health care premiums really become evident it's hard to imagine why voters would support the people who voted against them.

Answer 7

Anything is possible.



The numbers favvor the Repubs, in terms of number of seats to defend and where they are, but then there is the Mid-Term curse,.

Answer 8

Not likely. The Republicans won all of the House special elections except the one in PA, and Lamb ran on a conservative platform against a low-charisma Republican candidate. The Senate special election in AL was too strange to be a good predictor, and Jones has been voting with the Republicans since being elected. The trend in statewide state government races (such as for state Secretary of State) is for the Republicans to win, and that also reduces the opportunities for the DNC to commit election fraud. Finally, the DNC is run by loonies, and the Democrat leadership in Congress makes conservatives' teeth hurt.

Answer 9

Of course there's a realistic chance. There's a chance of losing the House too. I think trying to predict it this early is pointless though. The economy is heating up. We're experiencing real wage growth for the first time in two decades. If that's still happening, trust me, that makes a difference to voters. Clinton's advisors used to be fond of saying "It's the economy, stupid!" They're not wrong.



On the other hand, Trump is now trying to start a trade war, and his NAFTA threats are escalating...if the economy falters, given the massive energy the left has, this November could be a bloodbath for the GOP.



That's why I take current polls with a MASSIVE grain of salt.

Answer 10

18 democrat seats are up this year

Answer 11

Yes.

Answer 12

theyre the bes