Question:
Isn't it interesting that, even with the biased Press, McCain statistically is even with Hussein Obama?
anonymous
2008-10-13 09:32:34 UTC
See

http://zogby.com/

Throw in the margin of error AND the Bradley Effect and we have a tied race. McCain/Palin and their American agenda will, in the end, win over the socialistic ideas of Obama, don't you think? I do...America is not a socialist state and we don't need a socialism agenda from the White House.
41 answers:
anonymous
2008-10-13 09:37:13 UTC
Yes I would rather be dead than Red!!!
anonymous
2008-10-13 09:43:17 UTC
I'm sure it's interesting to you, since you chose the poll that shows the least space between them. I happen to think the Daily Tracking Gallup Poll, which for quite awhile has shown Obama far ahead, is far more revealing. For over a week it's been 10 to 11 points above McCain and is much more reflective of the real numbers since it's a daily snapshot. In this case the margin of error is out of consideration and the Bradley Effect seems to have little sway in this election. The only evidence of that effect was in the NH primary, and it was determined that the polls that produced that effect were old polls that didn't reflect the sudden upsurge that Hillary Clinton experienced there within a week's time.



Looking over the questions in this forum has made it abundantly clear that Republicans are becoming desperate. They point to the closest poll and comfort themselves with that; they turn to talk of socialism, still hoping anyone but the base buys that crap; they post questions full of little but innuendo and far right wing talking points. Sorry, but the Republicans are on target to lose this election, and no matter how hard you all twist, that look unlikely to change. We can only hope so for the good of our country.
anonymous
2008-10-13 09:50:05 UTC
It's not statistically even. Obama has a statistically significant, all be it small, lead. His lead is greater than the margin of error of 2.9%. You're also forgetting that a few weeks ago Zogby gave the lead to McCain where all of the other polls gave it to Obama. That suggests that the Zogby results are actually understating Obama's support. His lead in key states is stronger than the national polls suggest which in the end is all that really counts.



As for the Bradly effect, that is primarily theory. I've even heard people speculate about a "reverse" Bradley effect while John Zogby questions the validity of the effect all together. Bottom line is there is nothing to "throw in".
?
2008-10-13 09:46:52 UTC
The Bradley Effect is old news and doesn't have much to do with this election. Sure, it happened in 1982, but that was 24 years ago! Pundits and pollsters have proven the effect to have no more than 5-6 polling points of difference, and if you look at the aggregate polls, Obama is ahead by a bit more than that in the most contested states.

I hope to god that McCain and Palin have more dirt dragged up on them before the election. We can't afford 4 years of them.
shawn g
2008-10-13 09:39:03 UTC
We can only hope you are right but, I am not sure the margin of how much better we will be is that great. McCain is a moderate or soft socialist himself, He has some views that make him clearly better than Obama but, he was by no means a good candidate. I think how close this race is suggests just how poor both selections were. If Hilary wer running now she would be up 20 points same for Romney , Huckabee or Guiliani.
wendy c
2008-10-13 09:45:48 UTC
For one thing...no one has proven anything about the Bradley effect. It is a THEORY.

As for the press being "biased" .. it is the most common whine when journalists report realities that are not in your favor. Many immature people think that the job of the press is to give 47 lines to each candidate, and each of those 47 lines have to make the candidate "look good". Or, they can't report a bad fact about someone.. unless they dig up a bad fact to report on the other one..EVEN IF THE BAD FACT IS NON EXISTANT.



Polls are surveys of random persons and indicators. It is always possible for them to be "off". And it is just as possible for them to be completely right.
anonymous
2008-10-13 09:39:15 UTC
If media is biased, how did you find trustworthy statistics? Also, I think it is a little ridiculous to expect McCain to get a full margin of error and Bradley Effect bump. I don't even think the Bradley Effect will be that significant since the people too racist to support Obama yet too embarassed to admit it have many non-racist reasons to rationalize why they aren't supporting Obama.
Calvin
2008-10-13 09:40:50 UTC
It is not statistically even, but I agree that McCain is doing better than he should be. I am not sure I would call that interesting but rather fairly sad in what it says about this nation.



The good news is....most are not for McCain...therefore the "fairly" rather than "amazingly".
anonymous
2008-10-13 09:42:21 UTC
Yes. Those dammed biased reporters at Fox. Only accusing Barack HUSSEIN Obama of being a terrorist, with no factual proof? Where do you get off.
anonymous
2008-10-13 09:37:55 UTC
Apparently...you don't know how to read polls...The aggregate polls (more than one) taken together gives a snapshot of a moving target...Real Clear politics (an aggregate) has Obama in the 6.8 aggregate range (that is taking the average of several polls including zogby) and that is out of the margin of error...A good, healthy lead for Obama indeed...



Edit:



As for your "bradley" effect...there is also the reverse bradley effect highlighted during the Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama primaries...that folks saying they will not vote for a candidate may change their minds in the polling booth...This could happen to McCain...as undecideds by "hold their noses" and vote for the DEM ticket because it is in their best economic interest to do so....Stay tuned.
Wonder
2008-10-13 09:39:39 UTC
"we don't need a socialism agenda from the White House."...What? There is already a socialism agenda, it's called The Bailout Plan and your candidate, McCain, also voted for it. Next question.
yutsnark
2008-10-13 09:39:05 UTC
Yes, very interesting. Hahahahaha.



Throw in the margin of error, and the Bradley Effect, and wishful thinking, and a little bit of pixie dust ... and McCain wins it in a squeaker!
Gabriel
2008-10-13 09:42:39 UTC
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html



There's a source for polls. RCP says 6.8% on average according to several different polls. 6.8% is historically huge. No one has ever lost when they were this far ahead this close to election day. Keep your fingers crossed if you're hoping for a history making election.



Your sources show 4% on zogby and 8% on gallup. You aren't making a good case for yourself.
sum1infla
2008-10-13 09:42:38 UTC
Obama is ahead in the polls and will win handily unless the republican slime steal this one and help Traitorous coward Mccain and skank palin get in



Get over it We are getting rid of you repukelicans and there is nothing you can do about it
Louis666KWu
2008-10-13 09:36:57 UTC
No. Because the Bradley Effect is unpredictable and the margin of error could go heavily toward Obama. You're dreaming.
rookgaroo
2008-10-13 09:40:56 UTC
Polls are for fools like yourself and the hate-filled sheep who blindly flock around Sidney McCain. See you on election day.
Are you serious?
2008-10-13 09:39:16 UTC
Oh, I guess you'd rather have a President and a VP who have a problem with ethics? Keating 5 and Troopergate. I guess you want people that incite hate and violence in the Whitehouse. Maybe Sarah will let the first dude make some decisions in the Whitehouse too.



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
EmmCee
2008-10-13 09:36:58 UTC
Bradley Effect?

So Racism is going to win over what you claim is Socialism?
Purple Monkey Dishwasher
2008-10-13 09:53:51 UTC
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/polling/



here is a poll with more then 1 reported polling spot to i. and it already includes the Bradley Effect.



and for something a little more accurate to the election rather then polls. here is the projected electoral college map :



http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/







good day to you sir.
jero
2008-10-13 09:39:04 UTC
America is not Socialist and Obama doesn't have those ideas and your poll is wrong.The White man with the Black woman avatar.
anonymous
2008-10-13 09:39:27 UTC
With his gazillions of dollars of foreign and domestic funding, all of his celebrity endorsements and over a year of favorable saturation media coverage, I am surprised that Americans can even remember that there are two candidates running for president.

Perhaps there is hope for us yet.
Look behind you
2008-10-13 09:41:39 UTC
It's not all about the popular vote. Obama is leading in the electoral vote. Why don't you take a look:



https://answersrip.com/question/index?qid=20081012205653AAVFM5G
wunofdamoronbros
2008-10-13 09:43:20 UTC
I had a somewhat neutral position on Obama until I read this.



The Scope & Depth of Obama





You don't need to buy the book just read the excerpts....................



















































From Dreams of My Father:'I ceased to advertise my mother's race at the age of 12 or 13, when I began to suspect that by doing so I was ingratiating myself to whites.'





From Dreams of My Father : 'I found a solace in nursing a pervasive sense of grievance and animosity against my mother's race.'





From Dreams of My Father:'There was something about him that made me wary, a little too sure of himself, maybe. And white.'





From Dreams of My Father: 'It remained necessary to prove which side you were on, to show your loyalty to the black masses, to strike out and name names.'





From Dreams of My Father:'I never emulate white men and brown men whose fates didn't speak to my own. It was into my father's image, the black man, son of Africa , that I'd packed all the attributes I sought in myself , the attributes of Martin and Malcolm, DuBois and Mandela.'







And FINALLY the Most Damning one of ALL of them!!!



From Audacity of Hope:'I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction.'



! We CANNOT have someone with this type of mentality running our GREAT nation!! I don't care whether you a Democrat or a Conservative.



Edit: Everyone can thumbs down me until hell freezes over. I didn't write it, he did
?
2008-10-13 09:38:06 UTC
First, I won't dignify your biased website with a hit, second, you're throwing around the word socialism an awful lot. I question your political science expertise.
fdm215
2008-10-13 09:36:53 UTC
Nice try. McCain is trailing big time if you look at the aggregate of polls... not just cherry picking one that tells you want you want to hear.
Randy F
2008-10-13 09:38:46 UTC
Yes it is interesting but keep in mind that the silent majority will not speak until election day. That's Obama's and the liberals largest fear.
lowerrooms
2008-10-13 09:38:26 UTC
It's it interesting that McCain supporters are still using passive-aggressive bigotry by referring to Obama as "Hussein"?
anonymous
2008-10-13 09:36:34 UTC
But you have to throw in the margin of error as a + for McCain and a - for Obama...and that only brings you within the margin of error after you've accounted for it? Someone needs a math class....BADLY!
anonymous
2008-10-13 09:39:20 UTC
McCain is going to win in spite of the press.



American's do not trust Obama...he has not won us over.
USA Open for attacks from within
2008-10-13 09:37:52 UTC
Wait till all the dead people in Ohio turn out to vote right after Halloween! Yikes!
Morey000
2008-10-13 09:37:19 UTC
If you think the press is biased, you're just another republican whiner.



As if Rupurt Murdoch is some kind of liberal.
StringsofFire
2008-10-13 09:39:34 UTC
Nice try..... Nice choice for your Avatar! You had me fooled.
anonymous
2008-10-13 09:38:41 UTC
Hussein = beautiful child (Aramaic)



Mc = Master (Gaelic)

Cain = Evil Murderer (Genesis)

McCain = Master of Evil & Murderer
anonymous
2008-10-13 09:37:32 UTC
LMAO. Keep telling yourself that.
Takfam
2008-10-13 09:35:57 UTC
Who is Hussein Obama?



Also, your current Republican administration is buying bad home loans and stock in banks. Which means the government owns your home. Which means Communism. I'll take Socialism over that crap any day.
anonymous
2008-10-13 09:36:40 UTC
Does traitor ring a bell?

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaLatest.htm
anonymous
2008-10-13 09:36:48 UTC
Why did you make your avatar black? We know your white!
McCain/Palin 2008
2008-10-13 09:36:40 UTC
Amen!
zhoukies
2008-10-13 09:36:28 UTC
Unless the Democrats steal another one.
Marina
2008-10-13 09:35:47 UTC
Yes, McCain is going to win.
anonymous
2008-10-13 09:35:54 UTC
hahahahahaha....no i dont think so.


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