Question:
Who else feels that the Democrats just might win the November elections?
2018-02-02 21:41:01 UTC
This is what the Senate would look like if everything stayed the same except for Nevada and Arizona flipping blue, which does seem likely based on the results of last year’s special elections. In fact a did a regression analysis comparing the results of the special elections to some previous elections in the same region and it came up with this map. Democrats already gained a Senate seat in Alabama and a governorship in New Jersey (goodbye, Christie!)
26 answers:
vulcan_alex
2018-02-05 18:31:42 UTC
Anything is possible, but several of those states voted for the president and might want obstructionist senators replaced.
?
2018-02-05 18:29:11 UTC
Not gonna happen..
Jeff D
2018-02-03 16:22:57 UTC
The best hope for the Democrats is in the House; the Senate is pretty stacked against them. There are a lot more Democrats up for re-election than Republicans, and many of the Democrats are in red states.
2018-02-03 16:06:18 UTC
Lots of morons here do
2018-02-03 14:41:49 UTC
The signs look pretty good for Democrats. For one thing, the president's party usually loses seats in the midterm elections. The only time this didn't happen in recent decades is when Republicans won seats in the 2002 election but in that case they were able to use 911 to their benefit. This just Oracle trend is worsened by the fact that Trump is a historically unpopular president. Even presidents who are overall popular tend to lose seats and unpopular presidents tend to lose a lot of them. The generic ballot also benefits Democrats this is a poll question which asks whether people would vote for a Republican or Democrat without any other kind of information about the candidate. Democrats are currently winning this poll by about 12 points. In 2010, when Republicans 160 seats and retook the house, they had about an eight or nine point advantage on the generic ballot. The 2017 races also seem to bode well for Democrats. They 1 an awful lot of state-level special elections in 2017 as well as, famously, the Alabama Senate race. They also swept The Virginian races with their gubernatorial candidate, generally regarded as a fairly uninspiring figure, winning by 10 points, one of the largest margins in modern Virginia history. Democrats in the Virginia state house also wiped out a republican supermajority turning it into a near tie. Even in the special elections which they lost, including four out of five congressional special elections, Democrats did much better than past performance suggested they would. For example, in Kansas, the Democratic candidate, with little name recognition or money, improved 20 points on the performance of the 2016 Democratic candidate. These elections suggest an awful lot of energy on the Democratic side, and energy tends to win midterm elections.



I think there's a decent chance that Democrats retake the house. They need to win about 25 seats in order to do so. Coincidentally, there are about 25 Republicans who represent districts which Hillary Clinton won. These people will be top targets for Democrats in 2018. The Democrats are also helped by a wave of retirements among Republican legislators. Iirc, about 40 Republicans have announced their retirement. This helps Democrats because incumbents are generally thought to have an advantage in elections. An incumbent Republican my also be better able to defy an anti-republican Wave by pointing to their individual accomplishments. In the Senate, the situation will be harder for the Democrats because of the map. Democrats only need to flip two seats in order to retake the Senate. However, only about 10 seats up for election are held by Republicans and many of those are in deep red states that Democrats likely do not have a chance of winning. If Democrats are going to retake the Senate then the most likely path will be by flipping Arizona and Nevada. Both of these states have large Hispanic populations and either lean Democratic, in Nevada's case, or are trending Democratic, in the case of Arizona. However, this plan requires that Democrats also hold on to all of their other Senate seats. The problem is that there are about 10 Democrats who represent states which Donald Trump won in 2016. A number of these candidates will likely be easily reelected. However, there are some, such as North Dakota Senator Heidi heitkamp or West Virginia senator Joe manchin who could very well lose because they are running in states which heavily favored Trump. If any of them do lose then Democrats will have to pick up another seat someplace else and it's difficult to see where that could happen unless Congressman Beto O'Rourke pulls out an upset win over Ted Cruz in Texas.
John
2018-02-02 21:51:45 UTC
Probably.
dasuberding
2018-02-02 21:49:50 UTC
I predict that the Dems will continue their downward spiral.



The DNC is broke. Donations have dried up. Meanwhile, the RNC is breaking records in donations.



The Dem leadership consists of criminals and/or retards.



Either things will stay the same or the Dems will probably lose a few more seats.
daniel g
2018-02-02 21:46:52 UTC
That couldn't happen without corruption, the dems platform has been degrading since Obama, and now another blow with the memo release.

Now where did you dig up that fake map, not even close. If that is all you got, No chance for dems.
The First Dragon
2018-02-02 21:44:56 UTC
It is customary for the previous election's losing party to make gains in the midterm elections.

Maybe they will be electing better Democrats than they have before, too.
2018-02-02 21:44:24 UTC
We'll likely see exactly how fake those polling numbers are, won't we?
Weasel McWeasel
2018-02-08 17:28:24 UTC
No Might about it..............historically speaking, when one party controls all 3 branches, they take a pummeling in the mid-terms.



The system has Always self corrected and balanced itself out, and no reason to believe that won't happen this time , either.



the special elections that have already taken place , were all won by Dems. ....some incredible upsets in deep RED territory.



The cons are in for a wake up call in November.
2018-02-06 16:11:22 UTC
This isn’t science. It’s bullshit, and the Democrat losers will continue to lose as well they should.



I’ll bet you flunked Statistics—assuming you ever really took it—and don’t even really understand regression analysis.
OwlTrading
2018-02-06 16:09:14 UTC
They have little to lose
2018-02-06 16:08:27 UTC
we can only hope
?
2018-02-06 01:01:20 UTC
I think it's going to be a huge November for the Democrats, for one reason only................ IDIOT in the White House.
2018-02-06 00:53:51 UTC
I don't. The people come first. If majority vote votes against it, then the democrats will lose.
?
2018-02-06 00:39:43 UTC
God forbid!
2018-02-06 00:35:50 UTC
First the dems need to find funding and all the repubs have to do is tell the truth and show the truth about them and it will destroy them even more.
Blue Skies.
2018-02-04 15:48:33 UTC
Should the Trump economy continue to roar and soar. You will be hard pressed to even hear the word democrat.
Lavishka
2018-02-04 03:13:07 UTC
It's what often happens in the midterms, Americans like their checks and balances.
?
2018-02-02 23:38:15 UTC
🤞🏻
2018-02-02 22:17:40 UTC
I don’t do those type of drugs so I will wait.

Hillary had a double digit lead two weeks before the election and still the Republicans kept both houses and gained the presidency.
mitchell
2018-02-02 22:00:09 UTC
landslide
2018-02-02 21:48:39 UTC
Why would I have "feelings" about it at all?



@ Update - regression analysis isn't science, it's a basic statistical/correlational method taught in an introductory undergrad math class . . . LOL!
2018-02-02 21:45:26 UTC
The Democratic party controls the Elections.

The Democratic party does not "Lose", they chose to not be elected.

Especially so when the treasury needs refilling, and they do not want to take responsibility for the troubles and tribulations of the world.



Does anyone really believe that Clinton was a choice to "win".
Foxhole
2018-02-02 21:43:06 UTC
Oh. I'm sure they'll win one.


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